An Investigation of Cocoa Black Pod Disease Transmission through Mathematical Modelling

Cocoa black pod disease is a severe danger to global cocoa output. Mathematical models are commonly utilized to investigate disease transmission patterns and develop efficient control techniques. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of cocoa black pod disease spread using a mathematical model. The model's foundation is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the interactions between susceptible (cherelles, young and mature pod, ripe pod), latent, infected, and recovered cocoa pods, as well as the population dynamics of the disease-carrying pathogen. The developed model was validated using data from the literature and ecological observation from cocoa plantations in Nigeria, West Africa. Our results suggested the importance of early detection and rapid response in controlling the spread of cocoa black pod disease. We also found that control measures, such as removal of infected pods and fungicide application can be effective in reducing the propagation of the disease. Our study highlights the importance of mathematical modeling in understanding the transmission dynamics of cocoa black pod disease and in guiding the development of effective control strategies.